Speaking at IATA’s annual general meeting in Rio de Janeiro on 8 June, Director General Willie Walsh acknowledged that the aviation industry’s chances of meeting its 2050 net-zero target are “fading fast” and called on the sector to begin discussing a more realistic alternative roadmap. The net-zero commitment was adopted by global carriers in 2021, building on earlier pledges by governments and national aviation bodies from 2020, but Walsh said decarbonization has fallen significantly behind schedule and no single stakeholder group can carry the burden alone — fuel producers, aircraft manufacturers, and governments all share responsibility for the current shortfall.
The core bottleneck is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which was expected to account for more than half of the emissions cuts required to reach net-zero. IATA estimates 2026 global SAF output at approximately 2.4 million tonnes — roughly 0.8% of total industry fuel demand — against a requirement of around 500 million tonnes annually by 2050, equivalent to 65% of projected demand. The remainder of the industry’s decarbonization strategy relies primarily on CORSIA, the global carbon-offsetting and emissions-trading scheme administered by ICAO. Walsh noted that an ICAO target of 5% emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 is now practically unachievable at current production rates. IATA separately cited delays in next-generation fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries and unreformed air traffic management systems as additional drags on progress.
IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, called the UK and EU 2030 e-SAF mandates “beyond unrealistic” and “utterly detached from reality,” warning that binding targets imposed before commercial-scale production capacity exists risk driving sharp increases in fuel costs and passenger fares. The article notes the UK met a minimum 2% SAF blend threshold in 2025, but the supply was predominantly recycled cooking oil imported from Asia — a feedstock distinct from the electrofuels (e-SAF) targeted by more ambitious future mandates. Environmental organizations, the piece adds, have long argued that aviation’s net-zero plans depend too heavily on technologies not yet commercially viable at scale.
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- Ngành hàng không thừa nhận khó đạt Net Zero vào năm 2050Báo Nông nghiệp và Môi trường — Biến đổi khí hậu (carbon), 9 June 2026