Zhang Xiliang, director of Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, has said that China’s national emissions trading scheme has moved beyond its pilot stage into mature operation under the current 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). With the recent addition of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting sectors, the scheme now covers an estimated 60% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Zhang cited modelling indicating that this multi-sector configuration could reduce economy-wide abatement costs by 26% compared with a narrower scope.
Financial institutions are said to be pushing for market access before the end of 2026, a step Zhang described as likely to improve price discovery and market liquidity, albeit with a need to guard against speculative excess. He characterised the current price of approximately CNY 80 per tonne as broadly reasonable and expected the price trajectory to rise gradually as emission-reduction obligations become more demanding. Zhang also projected that the carbon market could account for 71% of the cumulative contribution to the Plan’s carbon-intensity reduction target, while also serving as a forerunner for China’s broader carbon-emission dual-control framework.
On longer-term ambitions, Zhang pointed to eventual coverage of eight major industry sectors representing 75% of national emissions. On the voluntary-market side, the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme is expected to strengthen its methodologies for agricultural and forestry projects, and authorities are reportedly weighing the possibility of allowing individual natural persons to participate in CCER trading in the future.
Carbon Market Context
- The in-house carbon research tracks improved forest management as a distinct pathway comprising 3,599 projects with approximately 22.6 million tCO2e of credits issued and 16.9 million tCO2e retired to date — directly relevant given the source’s reference to forthcoming CCER methodology development in the forestry domain.
- Other natural-ecosystem pathways in the research — including soil carbon and blue carbon — illustrate the breadth of methodology categories that a CCER forestry-and-agriculture expansion could eventually sit alongside.
Source
- 碳价将稳步走高！专家：金融机构年内有望入市，全国碳市场覆盖排放冲60%碳交易网, 2026-05-27