Australia · Baseline-and-credit scheme + ACCU offsets

Australia: 208 big emitters must cut baselines 4.9% a year, settling the gap with ACCUs near A$38

Since the 2023 reform, Australia's Safeguard Mechanism lowers each large facility's emissions baseline by 4.9% a year to 2030. Facilities above their baseline surrender ACCUs or SMCs; in 2024–25 they handed in 13.4 million units. The generic ACCU spot price ended June 2026 at A$37.95, well under the A$87.72 cost containment price.

Sydney central business district skyline at dawn, seen from the airport
Sydney central business district skyline at dawn, seen from the airport. Photo: Karora, Public domain, source. Resized only; no other change.
Summary

In brief

Facilities emitting more than 100,000 tCO2e a year are covered: 208 in 2024–25, with 132.8 Mt of covered emissions, or 29.9% of Australia's total.

Since 2023–24 baselines fall 4.9% a year to 2029–30; the 2023 Act caps net safeguard emissions at 1,233 Mt over 2020–30 and 100 Mt in 2029–30.

For 2024–25, 141 facilities exceeded baselines by 13.7 Mt in total and surrendered 10.8 million ACCUs and 2.6 million SMCs; 98.6% complied by 1 April 2026.

The generic ACCU spot price has stayed between A$30.75 and A$38.50 at quarter ends since mid-2022, far below the cost containment price of A$87.72 for 2026–27.

Data

Prices, supply and the shrinking baseline

Quarter-end ACCU prices, the fixed cost containment price, issuance, surrenders, and the baselines that drive demand.

Generic ACCU spot price at quarter end (A$ per ACCU)

A$/ACCU012.52537.550Q2 2022Q4 2022Q2 2023Q2 2024Q1 2025Q3 2025Q2 202637.95

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12. Volume-weighted generic spot price as reported in each Quarterly Carbon Market Report. Quarters without an exact quarter-end figure (Q3–Q4 2023, Q4 2024) are left out.

Table of the same figures
PeriodA$/ACCUSource (checked)
Q2 202235.1Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q3 202230.75Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q4 202233.8Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q1 202338.5Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q2 202331.85Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q1 202433.75Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q2 202434.34Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q3 202436.25Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q1 202533.08Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q2 202535.45Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q3 202537.43Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q4 202536.6Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q1 202636.28Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Q2 202637.95Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12

Cost containment price for safeguard entities (A$ per ACCU)

A$/ACCU02550751002023–242024–252025–262026–277579.282.6887.72

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12. Fixed price at which eligible safeguard entities can buy ACCUs from the government; rises at CPI + 2% a year.

Table of the same figures
PeriodA$/ACCUSource (checked)
2023–2475Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2024–2579.2Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2025–2682.68Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2026–2787.72Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12

ACCUs issued each calendar year (million)

million ACCUs06.2512.518.75252013201620192022202521.65

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12. 2026 not shown: 19.1 million issued in January–September.

Table of the same figures
Periodmillion ACCUsSource (checked)
20133.88Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20147.62Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20157.87Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
201613.13Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
201712.17Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
201812.44Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
201914.83Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202016.05Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202117.04Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202217.74Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202317.22Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202418.78Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202521.65Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12

Safeguard baselines vs covered emissions (MtCO2e)

Total baselinesCovered emissions0501001502002020–212021–222022–232023–242024–252029–30 legal limit: 100 Mt net179.8175.6171.6136.1126.2137.1137.5138.6136132.8

Source: Clean Energy Regulator; Federal Register of Legislation. Checked 2026-11-12. Baselines were reset by the 2023 reform; 2024–25 was the first year covered emissions exceeded total baselines.

Table of the same figures
PeriodTotal baselinesCovered emissions
2020–21179.8137.1
2021–22175.6137.5
2022–23171.6138.6
2023–24136.1136
2024–25126.2132.8

ACCUs and SMCs surrendered for safeguard compliance, by calendar year (million)

million units03.757.511.2515201820202022202510.08

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12.

Table of the same figures
Periodmillion unitsSource (checked)
20180.39Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20190.14Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20200.06Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20210.12Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20220.35Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20230.24Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
20241.53Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
202510.08Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12

Baseline scaling factor after the 4.9% annual decline (% of starting baseline)

% of starting baseline037.575112.51502023–242025–262027–282030–3162.4

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12. 2030–31 value is indicative; decline rates from 1 July 2030 will be set in 5-year blocks.

Table of the same figures
Period% of starting baselineSource (checked)
2023–2495.1Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2024–2590.2Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2025–2685.3Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2026–2780.4Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2027–2875.5Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2028–2970.6Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2029–3065.7Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2030–3162.4Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Chronology

Timeline

Red dates are still ahead.

From the 2007 reporting law to the 2030 settings

  • 2007-09-28National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act, the legal base of the Safeguard Mechanism, receives assent.
  • 2011-09-15Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act, the legal base of ACCUs, receives assent.
  • 2016-07-01The Safeguard Mechanism begins.
  • 2023-04-11Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 receives assent: SMCs and a 1,233 Mt budget for 2020–30.
  • 2023-07-01Reformed baselines begin falling 4.9% a year; cost containment price set at A$75 for 2023–24.
  • 2026-04-012024–25 compliance deadline: 205 of 208 facilities compliant.
  • 2026-04-15Regulator publishes 2024–25 data: 132.8 Mt covered emissions.
  • 2026-08-07Department releases its Safeguard Mechanism review consultation paper.
  • 2026-08-20ACCU Scheme amendments introduced to Parliament.
  • 2026-12Full September Quarter 2026 market report expected by mid-December.
  • 2030-07-01Review changes generally take effect; decline rates then set in 5-year blocks.

Source: Federal Register of Legislation; Clean Energy Regulator.

Mechanism

How it works

The yearly cycle for a facility over the 100,000 tCO2e threshold.

How a safeguard facility complies

  1. Step 1

    Report emissions

    Covered scope 1 emissions are reported under the NGER Scheme for each financial year.

  2. Step 2

    Baseline is set

    Production × emissions intensity, scaled down 4.9% a year since 2023–24.

  3. Step 3

    Below baseline

    The facility may apply for SMCs, 1 per tonne under its baseline, to sell or bank.

  4. Step 4

    Above baseline

    Before 1 April it surrenders ACCUs or SMCs, or uses a flexibility measure (TEBA, borrowing, multi-year period).

  5. Step 5

    Price backstop

    If the market is dearer, it can buy ACCUs from the government at A$87.72 (2026–27).

Source: Clean Energy Regulator.

Coverage

Scope

One threshold, with special rules for electricity and trade-exposed industry.

Who is covered

Source: Clean Energy Regulator; Federal Register of Legislation. Checked 2026-11-12.

Table of the same figures
ItemRule
ThresholdMore than 100,000 tCO2e of covered scope 1 emissions a year
SectorsMining, oil and gas, manufacturing, transport and waste
Facilities covered208 in 2024–25 (219 in 2023–24)
Share of national emissions29.9% (2024–25)
ElectricityGrid generators share one sectoral baseline of 198 MtCO2e a year
New facilitiesBegan all commercial production on or after 1 July 2023: best-practice or default intensity
Trade-exposed reliefDecline rate as low as 1% (manufacturing) or 2% for 3 years
Legal limits1,233 Mt net over 2020–30; 100 Mt in 2029–30; zero after June 2049
Offsets

Credits and offsets

Two kinds of unit settle the gap: offsets (ACCUs) and over-performance credits (SMCs).

ACCUs and SMCs at a glance

Source: Clean Energy Regulator. Checked 2026-11-12.

Table of the same figures
ItemStatus
ACCU1 unit per tCO2e stored or avoided by a registered project
SMC1 unit per tCO2e below a facility's baseline; not an offset
Surrendered for 2024–2510.8m ACCUs + 2.6m SMCs by 139 facilities
SMCs issued for 2024–256.7 million, to 54 responsible emitters
Heavy ACCU usersSurrendering ACCUs ≥30% of baseline requires a public explanation (23 facilities in 2024–25)
Cost containmentA$87.72 per ACCU in 2026–27; 6.1m ACCUs held (30 Sep 2026)
ACCUs issued21.7m in 2025; 19.1m in January–September 2026
Registry holdings68.9m ACCUs and 11.0m SMCs (30 Sep 2026)
Reference

All figures

91 figures with numbers, each linked to the official text with the date we checked it.

ItemValueSource (checked)
Coverage thresholdMore than 100,000 tCO2e of covered (scope 1) emissions a yearClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Covered sectorsMining, oil and gas production, manufacturing, transport and waste facilitiesClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Scheme start date1 July 2016Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
National targets the scheme is aligned with43% below 2005 levels by 2030; net zero by 2050Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Covered facilities, 2024–25208 facilities (219 in 2023–24)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Share of national emissions, 2024–2529.9% of Australia's total emissionsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Covered emissions, 2024–25132.8 MtCO2e, 2.3% less than 2023–24Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Total baselines, 2024–25126.2 MtCO2e, 7.3% less than 2023–24Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Total net emissions, 2024–25120.3 MtCO2e after ACCU and SMC surrenders (5.5% less than 127.3 Mt in 2023–24)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Facilities above baseline and total excess, 2024–25141 facilities; total excess 13.7 MtCO2e (9.2 Mt in 2023–24)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Units surrendered for 2024–2513.4 million: 10.8m ACCUs + 2.6m SMCs, by 139 facilitiesClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
SMCs issued for 2024–256.7 million (8.3 million for 2023–24), to 54 responsible emittersClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Compliance rate, 2024–25205 of 208 facilities (98.6%) compliant on 1 April 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Facilities in excess on the deadline, 2024–253 facilities; 317,212 tCO2e in excess on 1 April 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU use above 30% of baselineFacilities surrendering ACCUs ≥30% of baseline must explain; 23 facilities triggered this for 2024–25Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Baseline decline rate to 2029–304.9% a year through to 30 June 2030Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Indicative decline rate from 2030–313.285% a year (indicative; set in 5-year blocks from 1 July 2030)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Emissions reduction contribution tableScaling factor 95.1% (2023–24) falling 4.9 points a year to 65.7% (2029–30), 62.4% from 2030–31Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Trade-exposed (TEBA) decline rateAs low as 1% (manufacturing) or 2% (non-manufacturing) for 3 yearsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
TEBA cost testCompliance cost above 3% of revenue (non-manufacturing) or EBIT (manufacturing)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Borrowing adjustmentBorrow up to 10% of next year's baseline; next baseline cut by the amount plus 10%Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Multi-year monitoring period2 to 5 years, ending no later than 30 June 2030Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Civil penalty1 penalty unit per tonne of excess plus 100 penalty units a day for up to 2 yearsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Annual compliance deadlineExcess must be managed before 1 AprilClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Electricity sectoral baseline198 MtCO2e a year for grid-connected generators collectivelyClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
New facilities definitionFacilities that began all commercial production on or after 1 July 2023Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
What an SMC is1 SMC = 1 tCO2e below a facility's baseline; tradeable; not an offsetClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
What an ACCU is1 ACCU per tCO2e stored or avoided by a registered projectClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 assented11 April 2023 (Act No. 14, 2023)Federal Register of Legislation 2026-11-12
Legislated decade budget 2020–30Net safeguard emissions no more than 1,233 MtCO2e in total, 1 July 2020 to 30 June 2030Federal Register of Legislation 2026-11-12
Legislated 2029–30 limitNo more than 100 MtCO2e of net safeguard emissions in 2029–30; zero after 30 June 2049Federal Register of Legislation 2026-11-12
NGER Act assented28 September 2007 (Act No. 175, 2007)Federal Register of Legislation 2026-11-12
Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act assented15 September 2011 (Act No. 101, 2011)Federal Register of Legislation 2026-11-12
Cost containment price 2023–24A$75 per ACCUClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Cost containment price 2024–25A$79.20 per ACCUClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Cost containment price 2025–26A$82.68 per ACCUClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Cost containment price 2026–27A$87.72 per ACCU, rising at CPI + 2% a yearClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs held in the cost containment measure6.0 million (30 June 2026); 6.1 million (30 Sep 2026)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q2 2022A$35.10Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q3 2022A$30.75Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q4 2022A$33.80Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q1 2023A$38.50Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q2 2023A$31.85Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q1 2024A$33.75Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q2 2024A$34.34Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q3 2024A$36.25Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q1 2025A$33.08Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q2 2025A$35.45Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q3 2025A$37.43Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q4 2025A$36.60Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q1 2026A$36.28Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, end Q2 2026A$37.95Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price, 14 Aug 2026A$39.03Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
SMC spot price, 19 Jun 2026A$38.00 (A$39.25 on 14 Aug 2026)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Generic ACCU spot price peak, 2022A$57.50 all-time high, late January 2022Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 20133,877,980 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 20147,621,505 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 20157,867,836 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 201613,133,396 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 201712,170,406 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 201812,438,219 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 201914,830,105 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202016,052,805 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202117,040,782 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202217,738,059 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202317,221,108 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202418,784,758 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, calendar 202521,653,923 ACCUsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCUs issued, Jan–Sep 202619,139,145 ACCUs (Q1 5.46m, Q2 5.44m, Q3 8.24m)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU issuance, first half 202610.9 million, a record for a first half; 2026 estimate 22–26 millionClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU holdings in the registry, end of year6.1m (2019), 7.9m (2020), 11.5m (2021), 22.7m (2022), 36.2m (2023), 49.9m (2024), 60.7m (2025), 68.9m (30 Sep 2026)Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
SMC holdings, 30 Sep 202611.0 million SMCs; 63 safeguard accounts hold SMCsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 2018389,893 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 2019143,843 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 202056,994 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Safeguard surrenders, calendar 2021 (ACCUs; SMCs not yet issued)121,579 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 2022348,535 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 2023236,224 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 20241,526,091 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU+SMC safeguard surrenders, calendar 202510,079,598 unitsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU Scheme projects registered, 2022364 projectsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU Scheme projects registered, 2023337 projectsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU Scheme projects registered, 2024416 projectsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU Scheme projects registered, 2025407 projectsClean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Safeguard baselines, covered emissions and facility count, 2020–21 to 2024–25Baselines 179.8/175.6/171.6/136.1/126.2 Mt; covered emissions 137.1/137.5/138.6/136.0/132.8 Mt; facilities 212/219/218/219/208Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Safeguard Mechanism review consultationDepartment paper released 7 Aug 2026; submissions closed 18 Sep 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Review outcome and timing of changesPosition paper early 2027; changes generally from 1 July 2030Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Next full QCMRFull September Quarter 2026 report expected by mid-December 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Annual safeguard data publication2024–25 data published 15 April 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
ACCU Scheme amendments introducedAmendments to the CFI Act introduced to Parliament on 20 August 2026Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
2023 reformThe Safeguard Mechanism was reformed in 2023Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Scheduled 2026–27 reviewDepartment to review policy settings in 2026–27Clean Energy Regulator 2026-11-12
Questions

Frequently asked questions

What is the ACCU price in 2026?

The generic ACCU spot price was A$37.95 at the end of June 2026, up from A$36.28 at the end of March, and reached A$39.03 on 14 August 2026, according to the Clean Energy Regulator.

Who is covered by the Safeguard Mechanism?

Facilities emitting more than 100,000 tCO2e of covered scope 1 emissions a year in mining, oil and gas, manufacturing, transport and waste: 208 facilities in 2024–25, covering 29.9% of national emissions.

How fast do baselines fall?

By 4.9% a year from 2023–24 to 2029–30, so a baseline is scaled to 65.7% of its starting level by 2029–30. After that the indicative rate is 3.285% a year. Trade-exposed facilities can get as little as 1–2% for three years.

What is the cost containment price?

A fixed price at which eligible safeguard entities can buy ACCUs from the government: A$75 in 2023–24, A$79.20 in 2024–25, A$82.68 in 2025–26 and A$87.72 in 2026–27, rising at CPI plus 2% a year.

Is there a limit on using ACCUs?

There is no hard cap, but a facility that surrenders ACCUs equal to 30% or more of its baseline must publish a statement explaining why it did not cut more on site. 23 facilities did so for 2024–25.

What are SMCs?

Safeguard Mechanism credit units are issued to facilities whose net emissions are below their baseline, one per tonne. 6.7 million were issued for 2024–25, and 2.6 million were surrendered.

How well did facilities comply in 2024–25?

205 of 208 facilities (98.6%) were compliant by the 1 April 2026 deadline; three related facilities were left with 317,212 tCO2e in excess.

What happens next?

The Government's review consultation closed on 18 September 2026; a position paper is due early next year, and any changes will generally take effect from 1 July 2030.

Gaps

Not listed yet

Items we could not confirm in an official text are left out on purpose.

  • Generic ACCU spot prices at the end of Q3–Q4 2023 and Q4 2024: official reports give only ranges or approximate, conflicting figures.
  • The Q3 2026 quarter-end ACCU price: the full report is due by mid-December 2026.
  • Department (DCCEEW) policy pages: the site did not respond to normal requests, so figures come from the regulator and the Act text.
  • Generic ACCU spot price at end of Q3 2023, Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 — QCMRs give only ranges ('between $30.50 and $32.00') or conflicting approximations (Q4 2024 'around $36' in the December 2024 report vs 'around $35' in the March 2025 report). December Quarter 2023 report not opened.
  • Generic ACCU spot price at end of Q3 2026 — The Q3 2026 data release workbook does not include price data; the full report is due by mid-December 2026.
  • DCCEEW policy pages on the 2023 reforms — dcceew.gov.au did not respond to normal requests (connection reset / timeout). Facts were taken from CER pages and the Act text instead.
  • Value of a Commonwealth penalty unit in A$ — Not on the CER pages read; not checked in legislation.
  • Commencement date of the 2023 Amendment Act — Assent date (11 April 2023) confirmed; reformed baselines measured from 1 July 2023 per CER, but the Act's commencement table was not checked line by line.
Record

Sources