China’s National ETS Targets Second Sector Expansion After Record 2025 Trading Volumes

On China’s National Low Carbon Day (June 17), Zhang Xin, Chief Economist at the National Center for Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation (NCSC), told Cover News that the national emissions trading scheme has operated stably since its first sector expansion in March 2025, when steel, cement, and aluminium smelting were brought under the system. Those three industries added roughly 1,290 key emitters and approximately 3 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent coverage, while the range of controlled greenhouse gases widened to include CO2, carbon tetrafluoride (CF4), and C2F6.

Trading figures cited in the interview show 2025 allowance volumes reaching 235 million tonnes — a 24.4% year-on-year rise and a record since the scheme’s July 2021 launch. More than 2,000 regulated entities participated in trading for the first time, up roughly 40% on 2024. As of end-May 2026, cumulative volume stood at 904 million tonnes (approximately 60.7 billion yuan in total value). Prices ranged from 57 to 98 yuan per tonne through the first three quarters of 2025 before recovering; the final 2025 closing price was 74.63 yuan per tonne, 55% above the inaugural opening price.

A second wave of sector expansion is now under formal study. According to the article, petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and civil aviationare slated for the next round, which would extend the scheme to eight sectors, more than 8,000 enterprises, and coverage exceeding 70% of national greenhouse-gas emissions, with a stated goal of broadly covering all major industrial emitters by 2027. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s Department of Climate Change convened a research kick-off meeting in March 2026 to advance this work. Zhang also highlighted the February 28release of version 2 of China’s National GHG Emission Factor Database, co-issued by MEE and the National Bureau of Statistics. The updated research grows to 576 total factors (291 added or revised), introduces China’s first domestically derived natural gas combustion and methane fugitive emission factors (14 items), achieves a localisation rate of roughly 46%, adds a coefficient-of-variation data-quality indicator, and now includes an English-language edition to assist Chinese exporters in meeting carbon border adjustment and product carbon footprint obligations.