# Korea's provisional 2025 greenhouse gas emissions fall 0.9% to 685.71 Mt

_Published 2026-11-12 · Event 2026-09-20 · Policy and institutions · S. Korea · https://asiacarbondesk.com/news/20261112-kr-2025-provisional-emissions/_

Korea's Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment put total 2025 greenhouse gas emissions at 685.71 Mt in a provisional estimate released on 20 September 2026.
That is 6.1 Mt, or 0.9%, below the provisional 2024 total, while net emissions were 11.4% below their 2018 level.
Net emissions rose 0.5% to 654.70 Mt because wildfires cut the land sector's removals by 22.8%.

## What happened

The ministry's Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center released its provisional estimate of 2025 national emissions, calculated under the 2006 IPCC Guidelines that Korea now uses for reporting under the Paris Agreement. The release was embargoed to 20 September 2026. Total emissions were 685.71 Mt CO2e, down 6.1 Mt from 2024.
By sector, power generation emitted 220.43 Mt, up 0.2%. Total generation was flat while renewable output rose 8.5%, but nuclear output fell 2.2% because of longer maintenance outages and coal-fired generation rose 2.2%. Industry emitted 242.93 Mt, down 2.1%, as output fell in steel, petrochemicals and cement; semiconductor emissions rose only 1.3% despite higher production. Transport fell 2.9% to 94.59 Mt as diesel use dropped 6.1%. Buildings rose 3.3% to 45.00 Mt on higher heating demand, and fluorinated gases from refrigerants rose 3.9% to 36.28 Mt.
Removals by forests and land fell 22.8% to 31.03 Mt, mainly because the March 2025 wildfires in North Gyeongsang added 8.3 Mt of emissions from burning biomass. Net emissions therefore rose 3.1 Mt to 654.70 Mt. Against 2018, net emissions were 84 Mt, or 11.4%, lower. The ministry calculates that a further 149 Mt must be cut by 2030 to meet the 2030 target, and a further 127 Mt to 182 Mt between 2031 and 2035 to meet the 2035 target range.

## Background

The figures arrive in the first year of Phase 4 of the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme. Phase 4 runs from 2026 to 2030 with a cap of 2,537.30 Mt, an annual average of 510 Mt, against 610 Mt a year in Phase 3. The cabinet adopted the 2035 target of a 53% to 61% cut from 2018 net emissions of 742.3 Mt on 11 November 2025, together with the Phase 4 allocation plan.
The same release links the ETS to the trend. It credits a lower cap and a stepwise rise in paid allocation for lifting allowance prices from about KRW 10,000 on average in 2025 to the KRW 30,000 range by 20 August 2026. It also lists new laws passed in 2026, including a revised Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality that sets ranges for the 2040 and 2045 targets.

## Korea's emissions against its ETS caps, with Japan for scale

| Measure | Value (Mt CO2e) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Korea total emissions, 2025 (provisional) | 685.71 | National inventory, 2006 IPCC Guidelines |
| Korea 2018 net emissions (NDC base year) | 742.3 | Base for the 2035 target |
| K-ETS Phase 3 cap, annual average | 610 | Phase 3, five years |
| K-ETS Phase 4 cap, annual average | 510 | Phase 4, five years |
| Japan net emissions, FY2024 | 994 | National inventory |
| Japan GX-ETS coverage (indicative) | about 600 | Nearly 60% of national emissions |

Japan's GX-ETS coverage is an indicative calculation in the data book (nearly 60% of about 994 Mt).

## What is next

- No further dates are set in the official texts we checked.

## Sources

- [2025년도 국가 온실가스 잠정배출량 6억 8,571만톤 (보도자료, 2026.9.20, hwpx 첨부)](https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156782809) (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment (korea.kr), checked 2026-11-12)
- [2035 NDC and Phase 4 allocation plan (press release, 2025.11.11)](https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156727601) (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment (korea.kr), checked 2026-11-12)
- [제4차 계획기간 배출권 할당 완료 (보도자료, 2025.12.28)](https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156737066) (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment (korea.kr), checked 2026-11-12)
- [2024年度温室効果ガス排出量及び吸収量について（概要版）](https://www.env.go.jp/content/000394131.pdf) (Ministry of the Environment, Japan, checked 2026-11-12)

Data book: https://asiacarbondesk.com/korea-k-ets/, https://asiacarbondesk.com/japan-gx-ets/